Avaliação de serviços ecossistêmicos em uma unidade de conservação do oeste do Paraná, Brasil

Abstract

Environmental degradation has intensified since the Industrial Revolution (18th century) due to the prioritization of immediate economic gains and the undervaluation of natural resources essential to life. In the state of Paraná, as a result of logging and agricultural expansion, most of the area once occupied by the Atlantic Forest has been converted into other land use and land cover classes. Consequently, the remaining areas are largely fragmented, scattered, and isolated, which threatens biodiversity, biological processes, and ecosystem services (ES). The valuation of ES is an approach that seeks to place nature on a level comparable to market values, so that decision-makers and the community can recognize the importance of maintaining native vegetation. It acknowledges the economic, social, and environmental value of the benefits that nature provides and highlights the costs of its degradation, helping to guide public policies and land-use decisions toward more sustainable practices. The objective of this study is to assess the potential supply of ES provided by Cabeça do Cachorro State Park (PECC), located in São Pedro do Iguaçu. Initially, changes in land use and land cover within the PECC and its buffer zone between 1985 and 2023 were analyzed, covering a total area of 3,571 hectares. For this purpose, raster data from Collection 9 of the MapBiomas Project were used. In addition, trend-based scenarios for the years 2035 and 2045 were simulated using the Dinamica EGO software. Finally, the transformation in the valuation of ESs provided by the CU was estimated using land use and land cover data and the values in USD per hectare per year suggested by Costanza and collaborators. Results showed that agriculture and livestock occupy most of the analyzed area. Despite this, forest cover increased from approximately 15% in 1985 to 26% in 2023. Under a conservation-oriented scenario, projections indicate that forest cover will continue to expand, exceeding 30% by 2045 and enhancing connectivity with adjacent areas. Compared with cultivated lands, forested areas provided a greater diversity of ES and generated higher economic value per hectare per year. The total valuation of the study area increased from US$3,104,355.30 per year in 1985 to US$3,940,125.63 per year in 2023, representing a 26.92% increase. Projections further suggest that this value may reach US$4,601,616.73 per year by 2045, corresponding to a 48.23% increase relative to 1985. This study is expected to highlight the importance of forest remnants such as the PECC and provide information for local stakeholders and policymakers to support decision-making, sustainable management of protected areas, and the allocation of resources aimed at conservation.